For the third consecutive year, Hawaii experienced a milder-than-average hurricane season. However, it’s not a record-setting year for the fewest named storms in the Central Pacific.
“We have had some years in the past where there were no tropical cyclones. This year we had one,” said John Bravender, the warning coordinator meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
The only named storm to enter the Central Pacific basin this hurricane season — which started June 1 and ends Wednesday — was Hurricane Darby. Darby had weakened from a Category 4 hurricane to a Category 2 hurricane when it crossed the 140-degree west longitude meridian on July 14 and continued to weaken into a remnant low as it passed the islands to the south.
“Even though we didn’t get any major impacts from it, we did at least get some rain and some surf as it went by,” Bravender said.
In 2021, there were only three tropical cyclones that crossed the 140-degree longitude line separating the Eastern Pacific from the Central Pacific. That’s one more than made its way into the Central Pacific in 2020.
It’s also the third consecutive year the Eastern and Central Pacific basins are experiencing La Nina conditions, marked by colder-than-normal water surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. According to New Scientist magazine, this is the first “triple-dip” La Nina in 21st century.
“We expect it to continue through the wet season, and then transition back to neutral, possibly next year,” Bravender said. “For the state, we’re looking at a chance of wetter-than-normal weather. But how that plays out across the different islands is, I think, beyond our scale of forecasting.
“If the La Nina strength hold, usually stronger La Ninas means more trade winds and more rain across windward sections. With weaker La Ninas, you don’t get the trade-wind enhancement, so you tend to get more rainfall across leeward sections.
While neither late-season nor out-of-season tropical cyclones are unheard of in Hawaii, Bravender said the occurrence of either is unlikely.
“When we have late-season activity, like Hurricane Iwa in 1982, that was a very strong El Nino year, where waters were warmer than normal,” he explained. “It’s that warmer water that gives energy to the hurricane and you can have them form later in the year. With La Nina, we’re cooler than normal, and that makes it less likely to have out-of-season activity.
“Our big concern is that we’ve had three very quiet hurricane seasons in a row. And I get worried that people forget that hurricanes are a hazard here. There are all kinds of natural disasters that you have to worry about: wildfires, flash flooding. And it’s important when we talk about hurricanes, we talk about preparedness — emergency preparedness that can last through the whole year, not just hurricane season.”
That concern was echoed by Talmadge Magno, Hawaii County’s Civil Defense administrator.
“Regardless of how the season turns out, people should prepare every season. On this island, even more so, because of the possible threats of disaster that we face. We saw what happened in the Atlantic,” Magno said, referring to the devastation this year wrought by Hurricanes Fiona, Ian and Nicole. “And that was pretty extreme.”
“We’re glad for any kind of year like this where not much happens, but we’re reminded that last year, 2021, we had that ‘Kona low’ that hit us in December and brought a lot of wind and rain,” he said. “It could be any time of year, not just hurricane season, when we face a weather-related disaster. So, we’ve got to be ready.”
Email John Burnett at jburnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.